In 11 straight games now the fifth spot in the Phillies rotation has resulted in a loss. This time it was hardly the fault of the pitching as 32-year-old rookie Brian Keller gave the Phillies three strong innings in a 3-1 setback against the Yankees. The Phillies have done a face-plant out of the gate since the All-Star Break losing three straight home series and going 2-6 in doing so.
Interim manager Don Mattingly elected to use Tim Mayza as an opener and got two perfect innings from the left-hander, who turned the ball over to Keller to start the third. Keller got the first two outs in the inning before Austin Wells jumped on a first-pitch sinker and drove it 430 feet the opposite way for a home run that tied the game 1-1. Keller also allowed a fourth inning single by Paul Goldschmidt, but that was the extent of the damage against him.
Brian Keller’s final line: 3 IP | 2 H | 1 R | 1 ER | 0 BB | 3 K | 39 pitches / 29 strikes
Kyle Backhus followed Keller to the mound and gave up a leadoff walk before striking out the next two hitters. Mattingly elected to go to right-hander Seth Johnson to pitch to right-handed hitting Goldschmidt and he gave up singles to Goldschmidt and Cody Bellinger to put the Yankees up 2-1. Backhus (1-1, 6.19), who had just been recalled earlier in the day took the loss.
The Phillies offense, which couldn’t generate a run in Friday’s loss, had seven hits against Ryan Weathers (4-7, 4.25). The offense stranded eight runners on base and went 0-for-7 with runners in scoring position. David Bednar (4-3, 2.42) threw a clean ninth inning to record his 20th save this season for the Yankees.
Two key decisions, both turned out badly
First, Mattingly elected to not have Keller, a righty, face three left-handed hitters – Wells, Ryan McMahon, and Ben Rice – to start the sixth inning. Instead, he went to the lefty Backhus, who walked the first one and then struck out the next two. Rather than allowing Backhus to face the right-handed hitting Goldschmidt, he brought in Seth Johnson, who gave up a base-hit on a 1-0 pitch. Bellinger (left-handed hitter) then delivered the RBI single to give the Yankees the lead.
Keller was stretched out as a starter at Lehigh Valley. There was no reason he couldn’t have continued to pitch. Here are the splits of the three left-handed batters scheduled to hit in the sixth: Wells .109-LH, .191-RH | McMahon .196-LH, .215-RH | Rice .262-LH, .276-RH. All three hitters are better against righties, but the difference is 8.2 hits-per-100 at-bats for Wells, 1.9 hits-per-100 at-bats for McMahon, and 1.4 hits-per-100 at-bats for Rice against a left-hander versus a right-hander. At Triple-A this season, Keller had a .213 average against lefties and a .167 average against righties for a difference of 4.3 hits-per-100 at-bats.
I once heard the phrase: “Don’t out-think your common sense.” This is what managers do when they worry too much about which arm a pitcher throws with or which side of the plate a batter hits from. Keep in mind that none of the scheduled hitters had seen Keller during their career.
Second, Mattingly did it again. Goldschmidt is decidedly better – .333 vs .206 – against left-handed pitchers than against right-handed pitchers. Johnson gives a better match-up, but when you consider Johnson’s struggles this season (5.74 ERA) overall, why are you going to him? It becomes especially questionable when there are left-handed bats following Goldschmidt and you can’t make a pitching change. And if you want to worry about pitching splits, Johnson allows 10 hits-per-100 at-bats more against left-handed hitters than against right-handed hitters. In other words, if Johnson doesn’t get Goldschmidt – and he didn’t – Mattingly’s theory blows up in his face.
The bottom line
Don Mattingly, and most other managers, worry too much about splits. In an age where a pitcher has to face three hitters before he can be lifted, managers can’t mix and match the way that they have in the past.
Maybe Keller gets his butt handed to him if he is left in. The point is that now you don’t know how he can handle those situations at the major league level. It would have been a good test for a pitcher that hasn’t pitched in the majors before, but has plenty of experience on his side.
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