Analysis: Rollins and the Hall of Fame

Jimmy Rollins is beloved in Philadelphia, but somehow, is gaining zero traction in his quest to become a Hall of Fame player. It is worth noting that through his first five years of eligibility his vote totals have risen every season. The former Phillies shortstop received votes on 9.4-percent of the ballots presented by the members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) in 2022. Since then he went up to 12.9-percent in 2023 and to 14.8-percent in 2024. This time around Rollins received 25.4-percent of the vote, which is an impressive jump, but leaves him far short of the 75-percent needed for election to the Hall of Fame.

Shortstop is one of the toughest defensive positions, and Rollins played it at a high level for 17 seasons. Longevity plus competence at shortstop always matters in Hall discussions and should give Rollins some momentum since shortstop is a premium position. His defense was impeccable and he was rewarded with four Gold Glove Awards and also won a Silver Slugger Award. In 2007, Rollins was the National League MVP and was third in Rookie of the Year voting in 2001. His 2007 season made him one of only 27 major leaguers to win the MVP, Gold Glove, and Silver Slugger awards in the same season.

For some reason, Rollins–even with his popularity with Philadelphia fans–only made the NL All-Star Team three times in his career. To show somewhat of the mockery of that stat though, he was not on the all-star team in 2007 when he was the league’s MVP.

More importantly, Rollins played a key role on a number of Phillies teams that made deep playoff runs and of course, was a dominant part of the 2008 World Champions. It’s fair to say that if you took Rollins off of those teams, that era would have a very different look to it and Philadelphia could certainly have one less World Champions flag flying at Citizens Bank Park.

Voters are suckers for players who helped to redefine a predominant role in baseball. As a leadoff hitter, Rollins was among those who brought power (231 home runs), speed (470 stolen bases), defense (multiple Gold Glove Awards), and durability (nine seasons with 150 or more games played.) For leadoff hitters of his day, Rollins was well ahead of the curve in redefining what a shortstop can be and the role he can play on a winning team.

Playing for an organization with the history and pedigree of the Phillies, Rollins was at or near the top of the list in six different offensive categories when he retired; First in hits (2,306) and doubles (479), second in games (2,090) and stolen bases (453), and third in runs (1,325) and triples (111).

His numbers do fall shy of what a Hall of Fame shortstop generally compiles, but yet he stands above some current Hall members with a higher career WAR higher than Phil Rizzuto (47.9 to 42.1). His seven-year peak WAR (measuring the seven best seasons of a player’s career) ties him with Luis Aparicio at 32.3. In sheer hits, Rollins total of 2,455 is higher than Alan Trammel (2,364) and Barry Larkin (2,340).

Baseball historian and statistician Bill James has a formula to set Hall of Fame standards based on offensive stats. The average Hall of Famer rates a 50, J-Roll scores a 42, just off the pace. When you consider positional importance, James’ formula rates the average Hall of Fame candidate a 100 and Rollins flies past that at 121. At the 130 level, James notes a player is a “virtual cinch” to be elected.

Balancing the argument

With all of the good reasons for Rollins to be a Hall of Famer, there are reasons against his candidacy. On a personal note, his propensity for not running out groundballs is my biggest grudge against Rollins. It seemed that Rollins had the bad luck of often getting thrown out at first base after a fielder bobbled a groundball, but still had time to make the play because Rollins was a third of the way down the line. Certainly though it is not a factor in keeping him out of the Hall of Fame; just a personal grudge that I carry.

The legitimate arguments against keeping him out of Cooperstown generally revolve around how long he was a dominant player. Some believe that his run of great seasons was a little shy of where it would need to be. I spoke recently with one voter and that was the reasoning behind leaving him off of his ballot. The voter believes: “Generally, I like to see nine or 10 seasons of dominant or near dominant play. Rollins only had about seven seasons (2001-2007) when he was at that level, which is great, but he needs just a little more to get him into the Hall. He had the one MVP, but the highest he ever got in the MVP voting outside of 2007 was 10th. Even if he had been in the top three or top five in another season or two, it would really help him.”

Rollins also is not helped by the fact that his era had an embarrassment of riches when it comes to shortstops. Shortstop legends like Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Dustin Pedroia, and Miguel Tejada roamed the infields of major league ballparks during the time that Rollins was playing. Of course, Jeter is the only one of those shortstops who are in the Hall of Fame. Rodriguez would be if not for his penchant for steroids. Pedroia was on this year’s ballot and received 26.2-percent of the vote, comparable to Rollins’ 26.9-percent, which came in his fifth season of eligibility. Tejada is somewhat of an undervalued player. He was on the ballot for just one year (2019) and received just five votes (1.2-percent), which dropped him from consideration. He will be eligible for the Era Committee to consider in 2032.

Rollins also fell short of a couple Hall milestones, getting less than 2,500 hits and less than 350 home runs, which are considered standards for Hall of Fame entry. Actually, the average number of home runs for a Hall of Fame position player is 211 (Rollins hit 230). Keep in mind that those numbers are affected by early players from an era where home runs were not prevalent. Many of the “steroid boys” who hit huge numbers of home runs have not been voted in, which keeps the average number low.

Let’s “Bottom line this thing.”

Proponents of Rollins getting into the Hall of Fame point out that J-Roll was a rare power-speed shortstop, MVP winner, defensive anchor, champion, and franchise cornerstone with Hall-worthy longevity. The critics go to the “It’s the Hall of Fame, not the Hall of Very Good.“

Combining all of Rollins achievements and skills, there needs to be a lot of consideration that goes into his case. For me, it would put him in the Hall of Fame, but for others, he falls short. It’s all in how you look at his candidacy and how tightly you interpret Hall of Fame check marks like hits and home runs. For me, defense and contributions to a team rank high on consideration.

Just one more thing…

Watch Cole Hamels. He may suffer from some of the same obstacles that Rollins has run into, but there is another reason for why he received “only” 30.8-percent of the vote. It was his first year on the ballot. A first-year ballot Hall of Famer smacks you in the face when you hear his name. Derek Jeter, Cal Ripken Jr., Chipper Jones, and Ivan Rodriguez were all first ballot Hall of Famers and there was never much debate about whether any of them were deserving of that honor. Hamels is certainly not at that level and it is conceivable that some voters did not vote for him because of just that reason. In later years, he will be out of that level of consideration and garner more votes.

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