Yesterday we took a look at the swinging trend of stolen bases in the majors over the last 45 years. Basically, the ’80s and ’90s were great for basestealers but stolen bases seemed to slow in the 2000s and around 2014 analytics completely put the brakes on stolen bases. Now, the good old days are coming back and speed on the bases is being recognized as a good thing again. So, where do the Phillies stand in this “need for speed?”
Last season, the Phillies were 12th in the majors in stolen bases with 124, with a wide spread between them and the Tampa Bay Rays who led MLB in steals with 194. It’s worth noting that the two World Series teams ranked near the bottom in stolen bases. The champion Dodgers were 22nd with just 88 steals and Toronto was 28th with 77. Clearly, stolen bases are not the key to winning, but every little weapon in a team’s arsenal is helpful.
Trea Turner (36) and Bryson Stott (24) were the only true basestealers on the team with no other player having more than 12 on the season. Analytics argued that if a player wasn’t successful at least 75% of the time in stealing bases, don’t let him run. By those standards, the Phillies should have been doing a lot more running. Of players with 10 or more steals last season – and the Phillies had six of them – only one would have his license to steal taken away by analytics; Harrison Bader. Between Minnesota and Philadelphia, Bader was successful on 11 of 18 attempts, a 61% success rate. The highest success rates belonged to Johan Rojas (12-of-14) and Bryce Harper (12-of-14) for a success rate of 84%. The rest were Turner (84%), Stott (83%), and – wait for it – Kyle Schwarber (83%).
For the future, the Phillies have a number of young players coming through the system with speed. The Phillies minor league leader in steals was Aidan Miller, who stole 59 bases between Reading and Lehigh Valley. Miller though barely broke the analytics threshold as he was thrown out 15 times resulting in an 80% success rate. Justin Crawford was second with 46 steals in 57 attempts (81%), followed by Bryan Rincon who had 40 steals in 45 attempts (89%), and Dante Nori swiped 37 bases in 44 attempts (54%). The fifth most prolific thief in the system was Carson DeMartini, who split time between Jersey Shore and Reading and just broke the analytics threshold with a 79% success rate with 37 steals in 44 attempts.
The Phillies have had a history of speedy players, but not a long history of prolific basestealers. The last Phillies player to steal 50 or more bases was Juan Samuel when he stole 53 in 1985. The last Phillies player to lead the National League in steals was Jimmy Rollins who stole 46 bases in 2001. Turner led the NL in stolen bases in 2018 and 2021 when he was with the Nationals. The last member of the Phillies to lead all of Major League Baseball in stolen bases was “Sliding Billy” Hamilton who stole 111 bases back in 1891.
You can read more about Hall of Famer “Sliding Billy” Hamilton in This Date in Phillies (and MLB) History: January 7.
The Phillies need to lift their restrictions on base stealing. They need to lean into it like it’s a juicy filet mignon and not just garnish on the plate.
Let’s unpack why.
First, that 83 percent success rate matters a lot. In modern baseball, the break-even point on stolen bases is usually around 72 to 75 percent. If you’re above that, you’re creating runs more often than you’re giving them away. Five players clearing 83 percent tells you two important things. One, the roster already has good base-running instincts and efficiency. Two, the coaching and prep side is clearly doing something right in terms of reads, timing, and picking spots. When you’re that far above the break-even line, you’re leaving value on the table if you’re not pressing the advantage a little more.
Second, the run environment today is beginning to quietly favor aggressive baserunning. Bigger bases, tighter pickoff limits, and shorter disengagement windows have tilted the game back toward speed. We’ve seen league-wide stolen base totals jump dramatically the past two seasons. If you already have efficient runners, you’re basically holding a coupon you’re not redeeming. It’s one of the few areas where a team can manufacture offense without needing another expensive bat or hoping for a three-run homer.
Now layer in Crawford who was at an 80% success rate at Triple-A last season. Even if he doesn’t impact the big league roster immediately, his presence signals that speed is part of the organizational identity pipeline. Crawford brings true top-end speed and range, and eventually he profiles as the a player who can change innings with his legs alone. When you have an athlete like that coming, it makes sense to keep developing a system-wide mindset that values aggressive but intelligent baserunning. It smooths the transition when young speed guys arrive and keeps veterans bought into the philosophy.
There’s also a sneaky lineup-construction benefit. The Phillies’ offense is still power-driven, but speed in front of power stresses pitchers in a different way. When pitchers are worried about the running game, they’re more likely to miss spots, rush mechanics, or throw more fastballs in predictable counts. That can translate into better pitches to hit for your middle-of-the-order bats. You’re not just chasing stolen bases for their own sake, you’re creating chaos that feeds the rest of the offense.
That said, there are a couple of reasons not to go wild just for the sake of running. Not all speed is equal. Some guys may have an 83 percent success rate on limited attempts in ideal situations, but that doesn’t always scale if you double their volume. Reads, durability, and situational awareness matter. You also don’t want to run yourself out of innings in front of your best hitters, especially late in close games when one mistake can flip win probability fast. And there’s always the wear-and-tear component, particularly for veterans or players with past lower-body issues.
So the smart answer isn’t “run constantly.” It’s “expand intelligently.” Pick the matchups. Attack slow deliveries and catchers with weaker arms. Let your best baserunners push the envelope a little more. Encourage opportunistic first-to-third and second-to-home reads just as much as straight steals. That keeps pressure on defenses without turning the running game into a gimmick. Besides, just the threat that a guy can run is often enough to throw pitchers off.
The Phillies have already proven they can steal efficiently. The rules favor speed more than they have in decades. The farm system is feeding more athleticism into the pipeline with guys like Crawford and Miller just around the corner. That combination screams for a controlled increase in aggression, not recklessness, but purposeful pressure.
Please scroll down to comment on this story or to give it a rating. We appreciate your feedback!
Disclaimer: Some of the products featured or linked on this website may generate income for Philly Baseball News through affiliate commissions, sponsorships, or direct sales. We only promote items we believe in, but please assume that PBN may earn a cut from qualifying purchases that you make using a link on this site.
© 2026 LV Sports Media. All rights reserved.
