In today’s world, the word trend – in all of it’s forms (trending, trends, etc. – is used a lot. Topics trend on social media. Of course, there are fashion and music trends. And in sports, there are sometimes trends in a particular statistic. Those types of trends point to a shift in the sport, in this instance, Major League Baseball. MLB introduced rule changes for the 2023 season. These include a pitch clock and limiting disengagements by pitchers. The aim was to speed up the game. These changes have helped lead to other shifts in the game.

The third rule that everybody forgets

While the two aforementioned changes have helped, there is another change. It is less known but it has caused both stolen base numbers and stolen base success rates to go up. During the 2022 season, Major League Baseball tried something; they changed the size of the bases in minor league baseball. The average fan and even most true pundits never noticed until they were tipped off to the change. The change came to the majors for the 2023 season. In The Athletic, Jayson Stark wrote the definitive article on the upcoming changes in March of 2022. He pointed out that second base was never where it was supposed to be anyway.

Personal note: If you don’t have a subscription to The Athletic, you need to get one! Read the story (if you have a subscription.)

The change from 15 inches to 18 inches means each side of the square is 1.5 inches larger. That enlarges the base footprint by 3 inches in both dimensions. The real “distance saved” is modest. It is on the order of a couple of inches to maybe 4-5 inches. This refers to how far the runner needs to cover to reach the base. It also indicates how far the throw or defender has to reach. In baseball, speed is often measured in fractions of a second for stolen-base attempts. Even a few inches can matter.

Because each base is larger, the runner’s starting point and the defender’s “tag” point are slightly closer in net distance. First base is now a few inches closer to the plate thanks to the larger bases. This allows more batter/runners to beat out infield ground balls. While there is no publicly available, easily comparable league-wide count data that proves a massive spike in infield singles. There is some evidence that infield-hits (or at least infield-hit probability) has increased since 2022. Much of that evidence though points to the change that eliminated over-shifting by infielders.

The impact: How stolen base trends are changing

MLB recorded 3,617 stolen bases in 2024, the most since the 1910s and the third-most since 1900. That’s a big jump from ~2,486 in 2022, the last full season before the major rule changes. Stolen bases per game rose from approximately 0.46 in 2021 to between 0.72 and 0.73 in 2023 and 2024. The league success rate was around 75-76 percent range before the rule changes. It moved up to roughly 78–79 percent in 2023–2024. Higher success rates make attempts more valuable, which helps explain the sustained increase in attempts.

Minor-league levels saw large increases in stolen-base activity in 2023 and 2024. Some High-A teams set stolen-base records in 2024. Reports have flagged year-over-year rises in steals per team per game with double-digit percent increases between 2022 and 2024.

The rule changes and escalating success rates have prompted some organizations, including the Phillies, to emphasize speed in drafts and signings. They encourage running more often in the minors because the new rules made stealing more attractive.

In Part 2, we will look at baseball trends in both the majors and minors, our focus will be on the disappearing curve ball.

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