When Bryce Harper came to the plate with a runner on first, two outs, and the Team USA trailing 2-0 in the bottom of the eighth that it was showtime; all the show needed was a “showman.” Enter “THE Showman,” who entered lift-off phase and belted a pitch from Venezuela pitcher Andres Machado 432 feet with an exit velocity of 109.4 to tie the game 2-2.
Somewhere below the noise of the crowd, you could hear long, comforting sighs of relief from Phillies fans. Unfortunately, Venezuela came back in the top of the ninth to score a run on an Eugenio Suarez double and Team USA didn’t have any more magic left in the bottom of the ninth. The home run was obviously huge in terms of the game. In terms of Harper’s actual WBC stats, it helped to push his average from .167 coming into the game to .214 for the classic.
In terms of Phillies fans, those 432 feet likely did a lot to ease some of their concerns about Harper. With the offseason discussion of whether or not he is “elite” and whether or not his “not elite” t-shirt video was appropriate, a sluggish spring for Harper just added to the concern.
Even with the relief, in the grand scheme of things, one home run, no matter how big it was, guarantees nothing. When you look deep into the numbers and analytics, it’s easy to see that he has simply not been hitting fastballs the way he used to. Of course, at 33, there are a lot of players whose skills start to diminish. There really are just two questions: How far will they decline? And, how quickly will they decline? Anyone who thought that Harper would be the same player all through the contract that he signed with the Phillies is naive.
Even a declining Harper can be a very dangerous hitter and the Phillies can still win a lot of games — both regular and postseason games — with him in the lineup.
It’s going to be good to get Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Brad Keller, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, and all the other Phillies who took part in the WBC back into camp, at least for a few games. The last weekend of this month begins another hunt for Red October and will give us an indication of just how elite Harper still is.
