Dave Dombrowski is no stranger to trading young players. In fact, when he got the Philadelphia job, there were many of us who were concerned that the minor league system would be completely and totally drained. Much of the focus now is on the possibility of dealing away established major league players like Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and/or Bryson Stott. Dombrowski has practically written in Justin Crawford on the opening day roster, but things can change.

To consider the potential of a Crawford deal, you have to take several factors into consideration. Things like roster construction, timelines, player development and the broader direction of the organization. Crawford is one of the club’s most athletic prospects, a player with elite speed, strong defensive instincts and the type of baseball IQ teams love to build around. At the same time, the Phillies are a win-now club. They carry a veteran core, a payroll structured for contention and an outfield picture that has the potential to become crowded in the near future. So deciding whether Crawford should be part of the long-term future or part of a trade package is more complicated than it seems at first glance.

Reasons to consider trading Justin Crawford

The Phillies’ lineup leans left-handed. That is not a new development, and it is not necessarily a problem during the regular season, but it does limit lineup flexibility against certain matchups. Crawford, as another left-handed bat, would reinforce that imbalance rather than solve it. Even if he is an everyday player, it is fair to ask how easily he fits into a roster that already plans around Bryce Harper, Bryson Stott, and if the Phillies decide to “spend crazy money”, Kyle Schwarber. Then, there is Brandon Marsh to add to the mix as well.

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Another reason to consider moving him is the timing. Crawford – like most prospects – can not be guaranteed to make his MLB debut and immediately become an impact big leaguer. Some scouts point to a need to refine his hit tool to help aid his power development, adding more muscle, and work on his defensive skills to take better, more direct routes to fly balls. The Phillies, meanwhile, are positioned to contend n0w, but with an aging lineup there is no telling how long of a run they can put together. When you have a strong core in its prime, the appeal of using an upper-tier prospect to address an immediate need becomes very real thought. A team willing to give up a controllable right-handed bat – preferably one that plays the outfield – some starting pitching or dependable bullpen help might see Crawford as a centerpiece worth paying for and waiting for him to reach his full major league ability.

Even with all of his great attributes, Crawford’s profile carries some uncertainty. He has the athletic ingredients to be a dynamic top-of-the-order player, but his swing path and contact profile have been geared more toward line drives and ground balls than home runs. That does not make him a lesser prospect, but it does mean the organization has to project whether he will grow into a player with enough impact at the plate to be more than a bottom-third hitter whose game relies on speed. Trading him now means moving him before his stock either plateaus or takes a hit if his offensive development stalls.

Reasons to consider keeping Justin Crawford

Even with the left-handed imbalance, the Phillies have demonstrated that they value athletes who can run, defend and contribute across many phases of the game. Crawford checks those boxes. As a center fielder, he has the potential to become above average or better defensively. He has the ability to play left field where his defensive skills already are at least average to slightly above average. His speed is a weapon on the bases and in the outfield. The ability to do a number of things well offensively and to become an above average defender at two outfield positions is especially valuable if the club eventually shifts other outfielders around or uses them in more specialized roles. Consider too that with all of the concerns over the Phillies being too left-handed, the team had comparable splits last season, hitting .253/.322/.425/.747 with a 23.8 strikeout percentage versus lefties and .261/.330/.434/.764 with a 20.6 strikeout percentage versus right-handers.

While his mechanics don’t scream power hitter, there is certainly reason to believe he can increase his power numbers down the road. Still about six weeks away from turning 22, at 6′ 2″, 188 pounds, Crawford has the frame to add strength. His swing is fluid enough that a natural increase in muscle will lead to louder contact. Many young hitters with a similar profile do not start showing meaningful power until their early twenties, once they learn which pitches to drive and how to avoid rolling over hittable balls. The Phillies have a strong player development group, and if they believe they can help him unlock even modest home run pop, then his value skyrockets because he already has the hard part down. While you can refine a player’s ability to use his speed to its highest potential, you can’t teach speed. Much of defense comes from game instincts and Crawford has that part down. It’s just the refining part that needs work. What you can teach, at least to some degree, is how to lift the ball and turn contact quality into damage. Crawford is a coachable player with the ability to pick up the additional skills he needs.

Keeping him also protects the organization against future roster churn. Players get injured, players decline, players leave in free agency. Crawford represents inexpensive upside at a premium defensive position. A contending club that can plug a cost-controlled center fielder into its lineup has a significant competitive advantage, especially when big contracts push up the payroll.

And then there is the matter of organizational identity. The Phillies have leaned heavily toward proven major leaguers, which is a sound strategy, but it also means the farm system has thinned out at times. Crawford is one of the few high-ceiling prospects in the system. If you trade him, you risk widening that gap unless the return is too strong to ignore.

What His Trade Value Looks Like

Here’s the thing with what a player is worth in terms of a trade: they are only worth what another team will give up, which is decided by how rival front offices evaluate his ceiling. A team that believes in his ability to add power and sees him as an eventual everyday center fielder would have to consider offering a controllable starting pitcher or a right-handed bat with some impact potential. Another club might view him as more of a high-floor, speed-and-defense specialist, which would lower the overall return and make a trade less appealing.

If the Phillies were to move him, the package coming back would have to include at least one player who can help immediately. That usually means a major league arm with years of control remaining or someone who slots into the middle of the rotation but still has room to grow. Alternatively, a young, power-oriented outfielder who hits from the right side and fits the roster’s needs more cleanly.

Prospect-for-prospect moves are rare, but not impossible. A trade involving Crawford for a mirror image of himself – the same tools and upside, but a right-handed hitter – makes sense if the Phillies want to recalibrate their lineup without sacrificing long-term talent.

Conclusion

The decision on whether to trade Justin Crawford depends on what the Phillies value most over the next few seasons. If immediate roster upgrades are the priority and they can secure real, dependable help for a deeper playoff run, then Crawford is exactly the type of prospect other teams will ask about. If Dombrowski and the front office believe his speed, defense and potential offensive growth can make him a long-term answer in either left or center field, then they will be more inclined to hold firm and let the development process play out.

This is not a simple choice. Instead, it’s a balancing act between present needs and future upside. Crawford gives the Phillies flexibility, either as a young asset to build around or as a piece to help them win now. The direction they choose will reveal a lot about how they view both their current window and the years that follow.

Those things said, it says here that the Phillies should have to be absolutely blown away by an offer from another team if they are to give up Crawford in any deal.

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