Major League Baseball is experiencing a real shift in pitching philosophy: the once-beloved curveball is becoming far less common. In the span of just a few seasons, curveball usage has dropped dramatically. League-wide, the percentage of curveballs thrown has gone from roughly 10.7 percent in 2019 to around 8.5 percent in 2025. That amounts to tens of thousands fewer curveballs per year, as teams lean toward faster, sharper-breaking pitches.
The driving force behind that decline is a league-wide obsession with velocity. Fastballs are now routinely touching record numbers, and pitchers are favoring sweepers, sliders, and slurves — essentially faster and more horizontal-breaking alternatives to the traditional 12-6 curve. Those options often offer higher swing-and-miss potential, and they feel more in line with modern spin-rate priorities.
What This Means for the Phillies’ Pitching Staff
For the Phillies, this trend isn’t just background noise — it’s deeply connected to how their rotation has evolved. Take Zack Wheeler, for example. He’s well known for having a high-quality curveball — his grip and spin make it a weapon. But Wheeler has also embraced the modern wave: he recently added a “sweeper” (or slurve), a pitch that bridges his slider and his curve in terms of movement. Pitching coach Caleb Cotham even called it possibly the best variant of a slider for pitchers who can throw it for strikes. This addition reflects a broader trend — even a pitcher with a reliable curveball like Wheeler is adjusting his arsenal toward what the analytics favor.
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Aaron Nola, on the other hand, remains something of an outlier. His knuckle-curve, which has both horizontal and vertical movement is still a key part of his identity. Late in the 2025 season, he leaned hard into that pitch — in one outing he threw 43 curveballs out of 97 total pitches. That kind of commitment is rare in today’s game, especially given the declining curveball usage elsewhere.
Upsides for Phillies Hitters
If curveballs are becoming less common across the league, that could actually help some Phillies hitters. Less exposure to traditional looping breaking balls means Philly batters will face fewer of those pitches in other teams’ lineups. The change in pitcher’s arsenals will give hitters more reps against high-speed stuff, which some of the Phillies hitters thrive on.
Moreover, hitters who are more comfortable with fastballs and horizontal breakers like sliders or sweepers may find more consistent success in this environment. As teams shift to more of those pitch types, batters who excel against higher velocity and sharper, more direct movement will see more favorable matchups.
A Strategic Balancing Act
For the Phillies organization, the decline of the curveball presents a balancing act. On the mound, pitchers like Wheeler may lean into more horizontal movement, but keeping the curve in the repertoire gives that element of surprise. And on offense, Phillies hitters will need to stay ready for that occasional hook — even if it’s not as common as it once was.
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This shift also underscores a broader philosophical change in MLB: power and spin are king, but there’s still art in deception. The old-school curveball isn’t quite extinct, but it’s no longer the centerpiece it once was. For a team like the Phillies, finding ways to stay ahead of this curve — pun very much intended — could define how effectively they develop talent on both sides of the ball.
Every Rule Has an Exception
One of the clearest examples of a pitcher going in the opposite direction of baseball’s decline of the curveball is Ranger Suarez. He dramatically increased his curveball usage starting in 2023 — jumping from around 7.7% of his pitches to 21.6%. The curve became his second-most-used pitch, and it’s been extremely effective.
This suggests Suarez leaned into an old-school breaking ball, even while the rest of MLB was trending away from the curve.
Putting This All Together
The Phillies and plenty of other teams, are not monolithic when it comes to curveball use. Some pitchers, like Nola continue to use their curveball heavily. Others, like Wheeler are adapting and pulling out the curveball more selectively.
For hitters, Phillies batters are clearly aware that breaking balls, including curves, remain a challenge. Their use of a curveball machine in batting practice indicates a strategic effort to combat that weakness.
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