In a perfect world, the Phillies would have dealt with a serious pitching problem, but it would have been one of those nice problems to have. If the script had played out, Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sanchez, Ranger Suarez, and Jesus Luzardo would all be healthy and pitching well. The problem would have been created when Andrew Painter was ready to make his major league debut with the Phillies, giving them six pitchers for the usual five-man rotation.

Major League Baseball rarely allows for a perfect world. Nola went down with an ankle and rib injury. First, Mick Abel stepped into the rotation before sputtering slightly and being first optioned back to Lehigh Valley and then traded to the Minnesota Twins. Taijuan Walker has done an admirable job on his return to the rotation. Wheeler reported some shoulder soreness and had to have a start against Texas pushed back a couple days and when he did pitch, his velocity was down. Suarez and Luzardo have pitched well overall, but both have had a couple tough stretches during the season.

Among the concerning issues is that Painter has struggled at Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In 16 starts, Painter is 3-5, 5.42 on the season with Lehigh Valley and has given up 14 home runs. The concerning part about the home runs is that 10 of them have been hit by right-handed batters and just four have been launched by left-handed batters. While giving up the longball is a concern, the fact that Painter struggles to get left-handed hitters out is becoming a major issue for the Phillies top pitching prospect.

Facing the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders (Yankees) twice in one week, Painter had to face a lineup the first time that had seven left-handed hitters and one switch-hitter. In the second outing, manager Shelly Duncan ran out eight left-handed batters and a switch-hitter. The results were not good. In the two starts, Painter allowed a combined 12 runs in 8.1 innings for a 12.96 ERA, giving up 14 hits and six walks.

It needs to be noted that Scranton is normally a left-handed heavy lineup but if a minor league team stocks the lineup with left-handed bats, a major league team will certainly do the same. The bottom line is that Painter is going to have to find some way to get left-handed hitters out.

“I think location is the main thing,” Painter said of what he has to change to lower his .309 batting average against left-handed hitters. “Today, my curveball early on was good when it was below the zone, and then a lot of the damage was kind of done on just the middle with the breaking balls. So it all kind of boils down to location and what I’m doing with the fastball, because everything’s going to play off that.”

More than just location, Painter may have hit on something that drives home part of the problem when he talked about the difference in his pitches early in the game and in the middle innings. Even with some first inning issues this season – opponents hit .286 against Painter in the first inning – the 22-year-old has held opponents to a .242 batting average over the first three innings of a game. In innings four and five, the opponents’ average jumps to .327 while his ERA jumps from 4.12 in the first three innings to 5.91 in the third and fourth innings.

In Sunday’s outing, Painter gave up a monster 432-foot home run to left-center field to Yankees number-four prospect Spencer Jones, who is a left-handed hitter. The home run came on a fastball away that was not really a bad pitch, but Painter realizes that he has to be more effective inside with his fastball to prevent hitters from looking away.

“It’s really about establishing the inner half. I think there are times where I’m not really a threat inside so they have relatively comfortable at-bats, so not being afraid to move a guy off the plate and using those misses to my advantage. With the fastball in, I’d rather miss in and have that open up the outer half rather than missing over the middle,” explained Painter.

It’s easy to forget that Painter is still just 22-year-old and lost two seasons of development time. There are any number of pitchers who come back from Tommy John surgery and need a full season to get back to their original form. Spending the entire season with Lehigh Valley would be a disappointment to fans but may be just the right remedy for Painter. He still has time left this season to put everything together and go into the offseason ready to come into spring training next season and compete for a spot in the rotation just like he did in 2023.

“It’s just me versus me in trying to overcome these battles and overcome these inconsistencies. I know I’ll figure it out,” said Painter. “I’ve never faced failure, but I’m enjoying the process; I mean it sucks, it sucks because you always want to go out there and dominate, but just kind of to be able to take away stuff from each start and figure out where you can get better.”